South China Sea Crisis Impact Check

Twelve questions. Three minutes. Find out whether a South China Sea disruption is an inconvenience — or a supply-chain emergency.

I built this check because the South China Sea is the one supply-chain risk most companies have not priced. Roughly a third of global maritime trade and about 40% of the world’s petroleum products move through these waters. If a gray-zone clash, a blockade drill, or an insurance spike closes the route, your cargo reroutes through the Sunda or Lombok straits — three to five extra days at sea — or around the Cape of Good Hope, six to eight days and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel per vessel. The Red Sea showed us how fast surcharges arrive and how slowly they leave. This is not the Taiwan-Strait check. That one is about semiconductors and people. This one is about cargo, costs, and your supply chain. Twelve questions, three minutes, no signup. Your score appears on screen the moment you finish — and I will name the two areas where you are most exposed.

Why this matters

•Roughly one-third of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea (UNCTAD).

•Around 40% of global petroleum products move through these waters (UNCTAD).

•An estimated $3.6 trillion in goods transited the seaway in 2016 (CSIS); other estimates run higher.

•About 80% of China’s oil imports transit the Strait of Malacca into the SCS.

•Rerouting via the Sunda or Lombok straits adds roughly 1,000–1,500 nautical miles — about 3–5 extra days at sea.

•Around the Cape of Good Hope adds roughly 6–8 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel per vessel.

•Red Sea precedent (2023–24): rerouting raised voyage times, freight rates, and insurance surcharges — conflict-zone premiums can stay sticky long after headlines fade.

12 questions · About 3 minutes · Instant score · No email required

Built by Brian B. Su, Artisan Business Group — cross-border supply-chain and geopolitical risk advisory since 2009. Your answers stay in your browser session.